A cautious start to the shopping season

• U.S. online spending on Thanksgiving 2025 reached a projected $8.6 billion, a 6% annual increase.
• The strong start to the holiday season occurred despite economic uncertainty and consumer concerns over tariffs.
• Black Friday was expected to generate $18 billion in U.S. online sales, cementing its status as the year’s top shopping day.
• Retailers relied on heavy discounts to attract value-conscious shoppers, with growth driven by promotional activity.
• Overall holiday sales growth was projected to slow, reflecting a cautious consumer spending environment.

Despite a backdrop of economic uncertainty and lingering concerns over import tariffs, American consumers demonstrated a resilient appetite for spending at the start of the 2025 holiday season. Data from Salesforce indicated that online sales on Thanksgiving Day were projected to rise 6 percent from the previous year, reaching an estimated $8.6 billion. This early momentum, which saw shoppers spend $2.6 billion by 2 p.m. ET alone, set the stage for a Black Friday expected to be the largest online shopping day of the year, driven by consumers seeking deep discounts on everything from electronics to apparel.

Navigating economic headwinds

The holiday shopping season, which spans from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is a critical period that historically accounts for about one-third of annual sales and profits for U.S. retailers. This year’s kickoff, however, was shadowed by significant economic challenges. Consumer confidence fell in November to its lowest level since April, weighed down by market volatility, weak hiring data and stubborn inflation. A primary factor contributing to this uncertainty has been the implementation of wide-ranging tariffs on imported goods, which have increased costs for both retailers and consumers, forcing many businesses to adjust their strategies and absorb some of the financial impact.

The power of the promotion

In the face of these economic pressures, promotions became the primary engine for sales growth. Major retailers including Best Buy, Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch reported strong early-season demand, but noted that consumer spending was highly selective and focused on discounted items. Market research firm Circana found that 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw a price increase of at least 5% compared to the start of the year, with categories like toys and housewares being hit particularly hard. Consequently, shoppers were waiting for significant markdowns before committing to purchases, a behavior that led Mastercard to predict that the season’s sales growth would be heavily reliant on promotional activity.

The digital shopping surge

The shift toward online shopping continued to define the holiday retail landscape. Beyond the strong Thanksgiving performance, Black Friday was projected to generate a staggering $78 billion in global online sales, with $18 billion of that coming from the United States alone. The entire Cyber Week—the period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday—was anticipated to generate approximately $35 billion in U.S. online spending. This digital surge underscored a long-term trend of consumers favoring the convenience of e-commerce, even as some mall executives reported solid in-person traffic heading into the Black Friday weekend.

A measured outlook for the season

While the initial data from Thanksgiving and Black Friday showed robust consumer engagement, broader forecasts for the entire holiday season suggested a more tempered pace of growth. Salesforce projected that overall U.S. online holiday sales from November 1 through December 31 would rise just 2.1 percent to $288 billion, a slowdown from the 4 percent growth seen in the previous year. This indicates that while shoppers were willing to spend on deals during the key promotional days, their overall spending for the season would be more measured, reflecting the cautious sentiment pervading the economy.

Resilience tested by selectivity

The 2025 holiday shopping season has begun with a clear narrative: American consumers remain willing to spend, but their resilience is being tested by economic crosscurrents. The record-breaking online sales figures from Thanksgiving and the anticipated boom on Black Friday reveal a marketplace driven by value-seeking behavior. As retailers navigate the challenges of tariffs and wavering consumer confidence, the success of the season will hinge on their ability to balance inventory and pricing in a way that meets the demands of a more deliberate and discount-focused shopper.

Sources for this article include:

YourNews.com

Reuters.com

KomoNews.com